A white paper series

The ocean's carbon ledger

What the current observing system costs, what technology would make it MRV-grade, and what that saves.

The ocean already has a shared carbon observing system. Repeat hydrography, ship lines, floats and moorings, supported by nations together, put the ocean sink at about 3 GtC a year, a quarter or more of our emissions. Nobody has written down what that system costs, what would make it good enough to verify a tonne of carbon removal, or what a shared system would save compared with every project measuring the ocean for itself.

Three white papers answer those three questions, about one system at three moments. Each is written with the programmes and groups that hold the numbers, and each is written only if its numbers come back.

≈ 3 GtC/yrWhat the ocean takes up each year, known to about ±0.4 GtC
−35%Fall in ship-based carbon data sets, 2017 to 2021
+65%Rise in the spread among estimates of the sink over the same period

Why now

The ship-based carbon data stream has been shrinking since 2017 while the demand on the system is growing. Carbon-removal projects must detect their own small signal against the background ocean, and since October 2026 the London Convention and Protocol frameworks expect every research experiment at sea to show rigorous monitoring. Every project pays to measure the same background on its own.

The background ocean is a public good. A shared system, the one we already have made MRV-grade, measures it once. These papers put a cost on today's system, a specification on the upgrade, and a number on the saving.

The evidence behind the gap →